Change of East-Asian Summer Precipitation Associated With Strong El Niño Under the Future Emission Scenarios

Strong Eastern-Pacific type El Niño (EP-El Niño) events have significant impacts on the decaying-summer precipitation over East Asia (EA). It has been demonstrated that frequency of strong EP-El Niños will increase and associated become more severe complex under future high emission scenarios. In this study, using simulations CMIP5 CMIP6, changes summer pattern related to during its decay phase possible mechanism as responding scenarios are examined. Precipitation anomaly patterns EA EP show a large inter-model spread in historical between CMIP models where CMIP6 is not superior CMIP5. Under scenarios, anomalies tend southern decrease around northern from CMIP5, while there an overall whole CMIP6. The common change featured by southeastern China This could be mainly attributed anticyclonic circulation South Sea western North Pacific delayed response frequent Niños, which favors water vapor fluxes converging into China.